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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/20 11:58

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are the midday leader while wheat turns lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures down 
75 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 60 
higher. Energies are flat to higher with crude up flat. Livestock trade is 
mostly higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $21.00. 


   Corn trade is flat to fractionally higher at midday following the lead of 
the soybeans with a new high for the move being scored by a penny on the March 
contract. Argentine weather is still one of the main market items. Ethanol 
margins are narrowing but should remain positive enough to keep the plants 
running at a good clip. U.S. export values should remain pretty competitive at 
current U.S. offers. The weekly export inspections were in line with recent 
weeks at 938,099 metric tons. On the March chart support is at the 10-day at 
$3.66 with the 20-day at 3.62 below that, with the 200-day moving average at 
$3.76 the highest moving average and major resistance. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade reacting to the 
continued dry forecast in Argentina but we are off the new highs at midday. 
Brazil remains in generally good shape weather wise, which has cooled off the 
strength as of midday. Meal is $8 to $9 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points 
higher. There should be volatility moving forward with the moves to new highs 
for the move to go along with an 8 cent gap left overnight with more acres 
moving into the heart of the growing season in South America. Early Brazilian 
harvest will continue despite being slowed by rains, causing some crop losses. 
Weekly export inspection were a bit softer at 960,066 metric tons. On the 
March, support is the 10-day moving average at $9.96, with resistance at 
$10.39, which is the six-month high scored this morning. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower at midday for the winter wheat, while 
spring wheat works to hold onto the $6.00 area nearby in steady trade. The 
dollar is sharply higher at midday, but remains below 90 on the index. The 
Plains look to remain dry in the short term, with the best chances for rain to 
the east, with some popup showers in Oklahoma. The Russian crop will continue 
to be watched with less cover than usual, and India shaping up to potentially 
import more bushels the coming year. Weekly export inspections were in line 
with recent weeks at 422,288 metric tons. On the March Kansas City chart, wheat 
support is at the 200-day moving average at $4.72, and then the 20-day at $4.60 
with resistance the recent high at $4.84 1/2.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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